Professors from the University of the Philippines said the number of COVID-19 cases in the country could reach up to 100,000 by the end of August.
Professor Guido David from the UP Institute of Mathematics said in an interview with Dobol B sa News TV said the actual number of infections could still exceed their 100k projection.
“Posibleng lumagpas pa sa 100,000 pero gusto muna nating makita by end of July. End of July kasi ang projection natin baka pumalo ng 70,000,” he added.
(It may be over 100,000 but we want to see it by the end of July. End of July because our projections could hit 70,000.)
Professor Ranjit Rye from the UP Department of Political Science also seconded the said projection.
Rye added that the low estimate of coronavirus cases in the Philippines by the end of July is 60,000.
“Ang tingin namin ni Prof. Guido, given the new trend, kasi ang tinitingnan ng tao ‘yung numero eh. Dapat ang tingnan natin ‘yung trend, pataas. So, maaaring lumampas pa sa aming forecast,” Rye said.
(Prof. Guido and I think given the new trend because the people are looking at numbers. We need to look at the increasing trend. So the cases could exceed our forecast.)
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The two professors are part of the UP research team that publishes reports on the COVID-19 crisis since April.
David explained that the “R-naught” or the number that represents the infectivity rate of COVID-19 in the country has increased from 1.28 to 1.6.
“‘Yung surge kasi sa Cebu and also sa NCR, hindi pa na-contain ‘yung sa NCR kaya dumadami’ yung cases,” he added.
(The surge is in Cebu and also in the NCR. We have not contained those in NCR, so the number of cases is increasing.)
Rye pointed out that the first wave of transmission of the virus was not even finished yet.
“Yung graph natin pataas lang siya so kung hindi pa siya bumaba, wala pa tayo sa ano, hindi pa tayo nakalagpas sa peak,” David said.
(Our graph just goes up, so it hasn’t come down yet. We haven’t surpassed the peak.)
As of July 6, the Philippines recorded 46,333 cases of COVID-19 infections, including 1,303 deaths and 12,185 recoveries