University of the Philippines (UP) experts urged the government to place Metro Manila under enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) for a month to slow the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Dr. Ranjit Rye, a member of the UP-OCTA Research team, recommended the measure amid the high positivity and critical care utilization rates in Metro Manila.
“The template that we can follow is Cebu. In Cebu, after one and a half months of very strict quarantines, they were able to hammer down the rate of transmission,” Rye said in a “24 Oras” report by Joseph Morong.
UP experts noted in a report to President Rodrigo Duterte that the “surge in Cebu has been reversed.” The province’s new cases decreased from 176 to 92 daily, a 0.54 reproduction number, and a 7% positivity rate.
According to the World Health Organization, the reproduction number refers to the average number of people that one COVID-19 patient can infect should be lower than 1. At the same time, the positivity rate should be equal to or lower than 5%.
“These are very positive things, and if they can continue that and sustain that, we will see that Cebu will open up, its economy will open up, and it’s going to look forward to a brighter Christmas,” Rye said.
UP-OCTA Research team reported the Philippines’ number of new cases reported daily nationwide fell to 3,194 between August 3 and 9 from 3,698 between July 25 and August 2.
The country’s reproduction number lowered from 1.32 to 1.12 but is still above 1.
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UP experts recommend month-long ECQ in Metro Manila
The UP experts marked the COVID-19 situation in Metro Manila as a “serious cause for concern” because of its “very high” positivity rate of 17% and over 70% occupancy of COVID-19 beds and intensive care units (ICU).
The reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) lowered to 1.18 from 1.39 but remained above 1.
“The virus is still spreading in the NCR, but it has slowed down,” Rye said. “Hospital capacity is still at critical levels, and support for our health care workers in the NCR is urgently needed.”
“We all need to work together to reverse the surge in the NCR in the coming weeks. The government, at this point, cannot overestimate its achievements and underestimate the virus as the trends can easily be reversed,” he added.