Tropical Storm Fabian slightly intensifies and is nearing Severe Tropical Storm category, Pagasa reported on its 5 am severe weather bulletin, July 19.
The center of Tropical Storm “FABIAN” was estimated based on all available data at 1,090 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon.
It has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 992 hPa.
Fabian is unlikely to bring heavy rainfall to the country throughout the forecast period.
Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon that is being enhanced by “FABIAN” and the Tropical Depression estimated at 900 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside the PAR) (20.8°N, 113.2°E), monsoon rains will be experienced in the next 24 hours over Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan.
The latest forecast scenario for “FABIAN” shows that the hoisting of any Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) over any land area in the country remains less likely. However, residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins as any further southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast may result in the hoisting of TCWS #1 over these areas.
Tropical Storm Fabian slightly intensifies
In the next 24 hours, under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by both “FABIAN” and the Tropical Depression outside the PAR, moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.8 m) may be experienced over the western seaboard of Palawan including Kalayaan Islands. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
“FABIAN” is forecast to maintain a north-northwestward or northwestward heading today before turning west-northwestward on tomorrow. The tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or on Wednesday early morning.
Afterwards, “FABIAN” will move generally westward and pass close to the Miyako and Senkaku Islands of the Ryukyu Archipelago on Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. A west-northwestward turn is likely by Friday as “FABIAN” passes over the sea north of Taiwan.