PH close to flattening the curve during MECQ – UP expert

An expert from the University of the Philippines said Tuesday the Philippines was already close to flattening the curve of COVID-19 infections during modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila and other nearby provinces.

Prof. Guido David of UP-OCTA Research Team said in an interview on Unang Hirit that the 15-day MECQ, which would end today, August 18, resulted in a decrease in COVID-19 cases.

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David emphasized that the R-naught (R0), which determines the reproduction of COVID-19 cases, decreased from 1.5 at the end of July to 1.1 now in August. An R0 below 1 means a flattened curve, the UP expert said.

“Bumababa talaga siya kasi dati nasa 1.5 siya noong end of July. Ngayon, nasa 1.1 na lang siya halos. Malaki rin itong binababa kasi, kung bumaba ‘to less than 1, ibig sabihin nag-flatten na ‘yung curve,” he said.

(It is really going down because it used to be at 1.5 at the end of July. Now, it is only at 1.1. It also decreases a lot because, if it drops to less than 1, it means that the curve has flattened.)

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“Ibig sabihin medyo malapit na tayo mag-flatten ng curve [It means we are about to flatten the curve],” he added.

Also read: UP experts recommend 15-day MECQ extension

PH close to flattening the curve during MECQ – UP expert

David, however, clarified that flattening the curve does not equate to no new cases of COVID-19. He said it only means the number of transmissions is already decreasing.

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“Hindi naman ibig sabihin flattening the curve is wala nang cases. In fact, sa Cebu, is an example na flatten ang curve, nasa mga 200 cases plus pa sila per day,” he said.

(Flattening the curve does not mean there will be no more new COVID-19 cases. In fact, in Cebu, it is an example of flattening the curve; they are about 200 cases plus per day.)

“Ibig sabihin lang ng flatten na curve, pababa na siya [The flattened curve just means, he is going down],” he added.

On Monday, President Rodrigo Duterte announced in a televised briefing from Davao, Duterte said the following areas would be under GCQ:

Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Nueva Ecija, Batangas, Quezon, Iloilo City, Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City, Mandaue City, Talisay City in Cebu, and the municipalities of Minglanilla and Consolacion.