The OCTA Research group projected that the number of COVID-19 cases and related deaths would increase by the end of March if the trend would continue to increase.
OCTA said that with the current trend, the daily average of new COVID-19 cases would be 2,200 from its current daily value of 770 by the end of March 2021 “unless the spread of the virus is curbed.”
Moreover, the group added the total number of cases in Metro Manila will increase by 19 percent, projecting the number of cases to reach 280,000 by the end of March, from its current value of 234,754.
“The total number of deaths in NCR under this scenario would be 5,700, that is, 920 new deaths will be reported between now and the end of March,” it said.
The group noted that decreasing the reproduction number “will not decrease the number of new COVIDA-19 cases but will control its increase to 1,000 daily cases by end of March, for a total of 260,000 cases in NCR, or an 11% increase compared to the current total.”
OCTA projects 920 new deaths due to COVID-19 by end of March
“The total number of deaths under this scenario would be 5,300, or an additional 520 deaths compared to the current value. This would mean that 43% less deaths due to Covid-19 would occur in NCR by reducing the number of infections compared to the status quo. On a national scale, there are currently 574,247 Covid-19 cases and 12,289 deaths,” it said.
“If this trend continues and the national reproduction number remains at around Rt = 1.2, the country is projected to have 665,000 Covid-19 cases and 14,000 deaths by end of March. If the reproduction number is reduced to Rt = 1, the total number of Covid-19 cases is projected to be 640,000 by month’s end, with 13,500 deaths,” it explained.
OCTA also urged health workers to be vaccinated as the COVID-19 cases rise.
“There is a very small window of opportunity for health workers in the NCR to get vaccinated while the surge is still in its early stages and hospital occupancy in the region is still manageable. Our healthcare workers in the region must seize this opportunity,” it said.