New UP COVID-19 projection: 330k to 375k cases by end-September

The country could have 330,000 to 375,000 infections by September 30, according to the new University of the Philippines (UP) COVID-19 projection.

The UP-OCTA research team said in their August 27 forecast that the projected total number of infections is 330,000 for a “lower” estimate, 350,000 for “median,” and 375,000 for “upper.”
The UP experts reported that the COVID-19 reproduction number and number of every day decreased near the end of August.

The reproduction number is at 1.03 from August 20 to 26. The reproduction number is the average number of people who may acquire COVID-19 from an infected person.

The UP-OCTA research team said the ideal reproduction number is less than one. The number means each existing infection causes less than one new infection, and “the disease will decline and eventually die out.”

The number of new cases reported every day also decreased from 4,073 from August 19 to 25, lower than 4,300 in the previous week.

The trend is also decreasing in the National Capital Region, the researchers said.

The UP experts said the number of daily new cases is at 2,192 from August 21 to 27, decreased from 2,684 in the previous week. The reproduction number in Metro is now below one at 0.95.


The positivity rate has also lowered from 16% to 14% in the past two weeks.

The researchers said at least nine cities are still at a critical level though Hospital bed and ICU occupancy rates in NCR also decreased.

The UP for Metro is 180,000 to 210,000 COVID-19 by September 30.

The UP-OCTA research team includes professors Guido David, Ranjit Singh Rye, and Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco; and Ma. Patricia Agbulos, with contributions from Eero Rosini Brillantes, Bernhard Egwolf, Troy Gepte, Franco Felizarta, Rodrigo Angelo Ong, Michael Tee, and Benjamin Vallejo, Jr.

As of August 27, the Department of Health has recorded 205,581 cases in the country, with  133,990 recoveries and 3,234 deaths.

Meanwhile, the team earlier said the country should not fully reopen its economy even if it flattens the COVID-19 curve.

“We don’t necessarily recommend na fully reopening the economy because this is just the start of the recovery process, yung pag-flatten ng curve,” Dr. Guido David said.