The new Low Pressure Area (LPA) outside the PAR was estimated at 1,515 km East of Mindanao, Pagasa reported on its latest severe weather bulletin, Friday, November 6.
The LPA is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward and may enter the PAR this afternoon or evening. It is heading towards the direction of Eastern Visayas and may likely reach the area tomorrow afternoon or evening.
This weather disturbance may develop into Tropical Depression Tonyo within the next 48 to 72 hours.
Meanwhile, the center of Severe Tropical Storm Siony is likely to pass very close or over Itbayat Island within the next 2 to 3 hours.
Siony is forecast to make landfall or close approach over Batanes (more likely in the vicinity of Itbayat Island) within the next 2 to 3 hours as it continues to move west-northwestward. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. It will then turn southwestward tomorrow morning over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan and move over the West Philippine Sea towards the Paracel Islands area.
Siony is forecast to either maintain its current strength or slightly intensify to 100 km/h within the next 24 hours. Beyond this 24-hour window, the storm is forecast to significantly weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions associated with a surge of the northeasterlies over the West Philippine Sea. It may be downgraded to an LPA on Monday.
New LPA may enter PAR tonight; Siony nears Batanes
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2 is raised over Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Signal no. 1 is declared over the northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes), the northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra).
Today, the passage of Siony will bring moderate to heavy rains over areas under TCWS #2 and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over areas under TCWS #1. Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.