The OCTA Research Group said Monday that the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) imposed in NCR Plus (Metro Manila and nearby provinces) was “effective” and a downtrend of COVID-19 cases could be expected next week.
President Rodrigo Duterte has shifted the NCR Plus bubble to modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) beginning April 12 after a two-week implementation of ECQ.
Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction rate has slowed down to 1.24 from 1.88 following after ECQ, according to OCTA Research fellow Guido David.
“Effective naman ang ECQ kasi nakita nating bumaba ang reproduction number sa NCR…Di pa masasabing nagfa-flatten na ang curve kasi 1.24 pa ang reproduction number pero may ilang lungsod sa Metro Manila na pababa na katulad ng Pasay at Marikina bumababa na ang cases doon,” he told ABS-CBN’s Teleradyo.
(We can see the ECQ was effective because the reproduction number in NCR declined…We can’t say the curve is flattening because the reproduction number is 1.24 but there are some cities in Metro Manila where the number of cases is declining, like Pasay and Marikina.)
“Nakikita natin magpapatuloy ang trend, we’re hoping bumababa na siya to 1 by next week, by Sunday.”
(We can see the trend will continue, we’re hoping it will decline to 1 by next week, by Sunday.)
Also read: NCR Plus shifts to MECQ
NCR Plus ECQ effective; number of cases to decrease next week – OCTA
Guido appealed to the public to continue observing health protocols as the new COVID-19 variants were more infectious.
“Mas malala itong spike na ito, umabot na tayo ng 5,000 cases sa NCR. Nung August, 2,000 cases lang, 2,400, hindi tayo lumagpas ng 3,000 sa NCR,” he said.
(This spike in cases was worse, we reached 5,000 daily average cases in NCR. In August, we only had 2,000, 2400 cases, we did not exceed 3,000 cases in NCR.)
“Nakita natin mas maraming nahawa din na 0-17 (years old), ang
dahil dito nga sa nakikita natin, ‘yung mga variant, mas nakakahawa sila at mas infectious pati sa mga minor.”
(We also saw more 0-17 years old infected with COVID-19, which may be due to the variants, which are more infectious even to minors.)
As of April 11, DOH reported 11,681 more COVID-19 cases, bringing its total to 864,868. Of this figure, 146,519 or 16.9 percent are active infections.