According to the Department of Health (DOH), there are nearly 21,000 active cases of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region, which is under the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ).
The decrease or the feared increase in active cases in the coming months will depend on the government’s steps and the public’s cooperation.
But even now, the DOH has an estimate of the possible number of active cases in Manila.
He said the number of daily active cases could drop to 15,262 by the end of September if a 1-week general community quarantine (GCQ) with heightened restrictions and a 5-week ECQ is implemented.
If 1-week GCQ with heightened restrictions, 3 weeks ECQ, and 2 weeks modified ECQ (MECQ), it is possible to reach 42,050 active cases per day.
With 1 week of GCQ with heightened restrictions, 2 weeks of ECQ, and 3 weeks of ECQ, there could be 58,255 active cases by the end of September.
The experts’ projection already includes the GCQ with heightened restriction on July 30 and the current ECQ.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire reminded that the projection may still change depending on the public’s actions.
NCR COVID-19 cases likely to decrease if ECQ lasts for 5 weeks
“That is not cast in stone. These are projections. Maari natin ‘yang mapigilan. Marami pang puwedeng gawin,” said Vergeire.
So far, the threat of the Delta variant cannot be avoided, especially since Mimaropa, Soccsksargen, Bangsamoro, and Caraga are the only regions that have not recorded a variant of concern.
But Vergeire also warned that it is not possible to know from the symptom whether the variant that hit a person is Delta or not.
“We really can’t distinguish at this point kung ano ang Delta and hindi,” said Vergeire.
“We should all assume na kung ano man ang nagta-transmit sa atin ngayon, we assume ito ay Delta variant. Kung ano man ang sintomas, ‘yan ang kailangan pagtuunan ng pansin. Kailangan mag-isolate agad,” she added.
The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) has also lifted the shortened quarantine period for fully vaccinated people but have become close contact with people with COVID-19.
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