An expert member of the University of the Philippines (UP)- Pandemic Response Team believes that the Philippines has not yet reached the herd immunity target by the end of this year.
“Ngayon, kung titignan, nasa 11 percent to 12 percent po ang ating mga fully vaccinated… Kung titignan natin ‘yung buong Pilipinas, medyo malabo labo pa po ‘yung December kasi marami rami pa pong probinsya ang wala pa talaga,” said Dr. Jomar Rabajante, spokesperson of UP Pandemic Response Team.
Rabajante added that a big reason for this is the upcoming supply of vaccines in the country. Even if local governments are ready and with adequate facilities and personnel, they will also be useless if vaccines do not increase.
“May ilang local government units na ‘yung plano nila ay kaya hanggang sa December pero depende sa supply na darating. Kasi ready po sila, kaya ng capacity ng mga vaccination hub, pero ang supply ang kailangan hintayin,” he explained.
He said vaccination must be continued, especially in developed cities, to prevent hospitals from overcrowding and to be unable to cope with the number of patients.
Herd immunity still unlikely by end of 2021 – expert
In May, ABS-CBN Data Analytics head Edson Guido said that it would take a total of 3 years to achieve the government’s target herd immunity.
“We still have a long way to go. To reach the target of 70 million people by the end of 2021, the average should be around 600,000 individuals vaccinated daily, from today up to the end of the year. That’s 5.5 times the current pace,” said Guido.
“At this pace, we’ll reach the target of 70 million people in 3.4 years (or by October 2024),” he added.
According to Guido, the government will need to vaccinate 600,000 people per day from now until 2021 to achieve herd immunity.
Based on the recent data, the government has vaccinated 12.9 million while 29.1 million received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune.
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