Experts recommend extending the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) which is scheduled to end on April 4.
According to Department of Health-Epidemiology Bureau director Dr. Althea De Guzman, if the ECQ is withdrawn after a week of its implementation, its impact in lowering daily cases would not be that significant.
De Guzman said the data should be carefully analyzed while considering the impact on the economy when the ECQ is extended to Metro Manila and neighboring provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna.
De Guzman also mentioned that the COVID-19 case is likely to increase when the ECQ is withdrawn on April 4.
She said it will only be seen if the decline in COVID-19 cases will continue if the ECQ has an extension.
Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque said that if the advice of experts is followed, more people may die of starvation.
The Department of Health (DOH) said Monday that the reimposed enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) over NCR Plus would prevent an additional 430,000 by the end of April.
Epidemiology Bureau exec wants ECQ extended
According to Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, the projections were made through modeling tool FASSSTER which showed that “further exponential increase [is] likely” if “we are not going to impose harder lockdowns or harder measures.”
“They said that if we don’t implement immediate and harder measures, we will see 430,000 cases by April 30 nationally and 350,000 cases in NCR alone by the end of April,” she said in a briefing.
The DOH official said Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna—the provinces included in the “bubble”—are already at high to critical risk based on the two-week growth rate and average daily attack rate of COVID-19.
Vergeire also lamented that the Philippines’ health system is “choking,” with healthcare utilization rates reaching 63% in Metro Manila and 58% in Calabarzon.
“Our main objective in implementing stricter community quarantine is for us to have our health system capacity be manageable enough,” she said.
Areas in the NCR Plus “bubble” would be under from March 29 to April 4.
The DOH official explained that the effects of ECQ will not be immediately felt due to the incubation period of the coronavirus, which takes up to 14 days.