The Department of Health (DOH) does not want to use the term “surge” when it comes to another spike in the COVID-19 case in the Philippines, even though it has surpassed its highest records since the virus entered the country.
It will be recalled that 18,332 COVID-19 cases were reported in the Philippines on Monday, the highest single-day increase in infections in Philippine history.
Dr. Alethea de Guzman, director of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau, explained that there is no exact definition or measure of whether or not a “surge” is happening when it comes to new COVID-19 cases.
“As an epidemiologist, wala tayong kongkretong depinisyon kung ano ba talaga ang ‘surge.’ In fact there are different interpretations,” said De Guzman.
“Some would say a surge would say an increase of cases. ‘Yung iba sasabihin nila, ‘Ay hindi lang dapat increase in cases, dapat sinasabayan siya na nao-overwhelm ang ating mga healthcare facility.’ Kaya sa [facilities], they use that term: surge capacity, kung narinig niyo.”
Despite this, the DOH admitted to the obvious COVID-19 increase when it comes to cases. Consequently, they want to be able to quantify accurately how large or small the increases are. There are:
- two-week growth rate: measures how quickly or how much cases increase over two weeks
- the average daily attack rate (ADAR): measures how much of the population is affected by COVID-19
The two-week growth rate of COVID-19 in the Philippines is currently at 63%, according to De Guzman. “That’s why we use naman na ang ating average daily attack rate, na sa ngayon, based on our cut-off thresholds, tayo ay naka-high risk na ADAR,” the DOH official added.
DOH refuses to use term ‘COVID-19 surge’
“We try to quantify and describe that increase through our risk classification, and nationally nakikita natin naka-high risk case classification tayo.”
Based on what the DOH presented earlier, here are the 10 regions placed in the “high-risk” case classification:
National Capital Region
CALABARZON
Central Luzon
Cagayan Valley
Northern Mindanao
Cordillera Administrative Region
Central Visayas
Ilocos Region
Davao Region
Western Visayas
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