The Department of Health (DOH) and the OCTA Research team project around 4,000 COVID-19 cases could be recorded during and after this Christmas holiday season.
DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the Philippines may have more cases like the United States and Canada experienced after celebrating Thanksgiving.
“The likelihood of this surge in the Philippines in the coming holidays is very likely. And we should take this threat very seriously and act immediately to avoid this from happening,” she said.
Vergeire said DOH and OCTA’s FASSSTER original projection confirmed ‘high’ likelihood of COVID-19 surge without interventions.
Vergeire said the infections in Metro Manila could reach 4,000 new cases daily with no aggressive measures to prevent transmission.
Vergeire warned that the number of new daily cases may overwhelm the health system capacity to 80% utilization by the end of January in 2021.
Meanwhile, OCTA Research’s David Guido said the estimate of 4,000 daily new infections is very critical.
“The 4,000 cases is actually on the higher end of the projection rather than the lower end,” he said.
“Four thousand is actually a very critical number because last time we went to modified enhanced community quarantine, we were at 2,000 per day in Metro Manila,” he added.
DOH, OCTA project 4,000 COVID-19 cases daily during, after holidays
On Wednesday, Health Secretary Franciso Duque called on hospitals and local government units to brace for a COVID-19 surge after the Christmas holidays.
“Hihingin natin ang commitment ng mga ospital… na maglaan po ng sapat na bilang ng kama at mechanical ventilators,” Duque said.
“Hihingin natin ang commitment ng mga ospital, lalo na ng mga pribadong ospital, na maglaan po ng sapat na bilang ng kama at mechanical ventilators para po mapaghandaan po natin nang sapat ang posibleng surge,” he added.
Last month, the OCTA Research team number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines could hit 500,000 by the end of 2021.
The experts asked the government to enforce the 10-person limit for gatherings in areas under general community quarantine (GCQ) and discourage office parties and other social events.
As of Wednesday, the DOH has reported a total of 452,988 COVID-19 cases with 1,156 new infections. A total of 419,282 patients have already recovered, while 24,873 are still active cases.