DOH: NCR active cases may reach 300K by September if ‘nothing changes’

According to a Department of Health (DOH) projection, the Philippines’ currently active COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila could double by September if vaccine coverage, compliance with health protocols, and detection to isolation in Manila are not improved.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Monday at a media forum when the six-week Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ) will be implemented in Metro Manila from August 21 to September 30.

“Now for MECQ, when we look at this, ang current kung hindi tayo makapag-improve [sa vaccinations, pagsunod sa protocols at detection to isolation], it’s about 71,000 plus active cases by the end of August and [333,079] active cases by the end of September,” said Vergeire.

“But if we are going to improve all of these factors, we will have about 83,000 plus active cases by the end of August and 152,000 by the end of September.”

As of last Sunday’s data, there are 125,900 active (or still recovering) cases of COVID-19 across the Philippines.

The number of active cases in the DOH’s projection will be greater if the quarantine restrictions imposed in the coming weeks are more lenient.

If four weeks of MECQ and two weeks of were to take place (and vaccine coverage, case detection to isolation interval, and minimum public health standard compliance improved compared to today), it is possible that the numbers would come out like this:

  • 83,921 (end of August)
  • 158,489 (end of September)

DOH: NCR active cases may reach 300K by September if ‘nothing changes’

“Kailangan po maintindihan ng ating mga kababayan na ito po ay projections. Hindi po necessarily na talagang mangyayari ito,” said Vergeire.

“Ito po ay talagang hindi mangyayari o mapre-prevent natin na mangyayari… If we can improve on vaccine coverage, on the shortening of our detection to isolation and the compliance of minimum public health standards.”

Meanwhile, the Department of Health (DOH) recorded 18,332 new coronavirus disease infections, Monday, August 23.

An additional 466 new cases of the more contagious COVID-19 Delta variant are recorded in the Philippines today, bringing it to 1,273 in total.

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