DOH contests Ateneo study on 2.8 million unreported COVID-19 cases in PH

The Department of Health (DOH) disputed Thursday the study conducted by Ateneo de Manila University that said that there are around 2.8 million unreported COVID-19 cases in the country, citing the research did not consider the health systems differences among countries.

Jan Frederick Cruz of ADMU-Department of Economics said in his study “An Empirical Argument for Mass Testing: Crude Estimates of Unreported COVID19 Cases in the Philippines vis-à-vis Others in the ASEAN-5″ that there are 2.8 million unreported COVID-19 cases from April to June.

“May pagkakaiba na sa kakayanan ng health systems bago pa ang pandemic…sa atin po kasi, decentralized, kaya nagkakaiba ang kakayanan across the country. If you compare it by the numbers [of COVID-19 cases] na hindi natin isasama ang health system capacity ng isang bansa, hindi naman po appropriate iyon,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said at a Palace briefing.

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“Isa sa ginawa po nilang basehan ay iyong case fatality rate, and our economists and epidemiologists have said that such is not [a] correct [way to compare],” Vergeire added.

The DOH official, however, assured that the DOH would still study the findings and consider it in improving its COVID-19 response.

“Bukas po tayo sa mga ganyan, at puede naman po kaming makipag-usap sa kanya para magamit po natin,” Vergeire said.

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Cruz said in an interview on GMA Network’s Unang Hirit on Thursday that the estimated number of possible undetected infections were based on the current data on COVID-19.

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DOH contests Ateneo study on 2.8 million unreported COVID-19 cases in PH

Cruz said the methodology was applied to the ASEAN-5 for his study, including the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore.

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“The analysis reveals that 96%-99% of COVID-19 cases in the ASEAN-5 were undetected during April-June 2020,” said the study, which was released on Tuesday.

“Roughly three million Filipinos (2.6% of the national population) may have been infected by the virus in the same period—the worst record in the ASEAN-5 group in percentage terms,” it added.

Cruz noted the study revealed that reported COVID-19 cases are only 1 to 2 percent of the actual number of infections.

He also said the Philippines was the worst performer among the ASEAN-5 in controlling the spread of COVID-19, adding the country has a high proportion of cases over its population.