COVID-19 surge will be felt in first 2 weeks of January- OCTA prof

OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye said Thursday the COVID-19 surge in the Philippines would be felt in the first two weeks of January.

“Hindi na if ‘yan [pagtaas] eh, but a question of when and how much. Siguradong tataas po. Wala nang kaduda-duda,” Rye said in an interview on Super Radyo dzBB.

“Makikita natin ‘yan first o second week of January kasi may incubation period pa tayo,” he added.

The team hopes the increase in infections would be minimal or else, the health care system may be overwhelmed.

“Ang hope namin below 2,000 cases a day, sana just above 1,000 okay na ‘yun kasi kakayanin ng hospital system natin ‘yun eh. Pero kapag umabot tayo ng 2,000 to 4,000 cases, wala na ho,” Rye said.

“Ang ipinagdadasal natin ‘yung wave na ito ay mababa lang, mabagal na wave. Ang ayaw natin tsunami… Pero pwede hong in the next week or so, kung magpapabaya tayo o magkukumpiyansa eh baka tsunami ang mangyari,” he added.

The professor said the reproduction rate of infection nationwide has already breached 1.0.

“Generally speaking, sa buong bansa, tumaas na tayo sa over 1.0. Specifically, ang epicenter ng surge na ito ay nasa NCR po. Nasa 90% ng NCR tumaas na,” Rye said.

COVID-19 surge will be felt in first 2 weeks of January- OCTA prof

“Ang ibig sabihin nito, ‘yung transmission rate, mabilis ang pagkalat niya pag over 1. Mas maraming puwedeng mahawa,” he added.

Yesterday, OCTA research reported the COVID-19 surge in Metro Manila is already in “early stages” and warned it is “serious cause for concern” that could still be controlled.

The “period of the declining trend in cases observed in the National Capital Region (NCR) in the past few months has now ended,” the research team said.

“The trend has been reversed with significant positive growth in new cases observed in the region,” the multidisciplinary group said.

“It is in this light that we believe, based on our analysis of the data and of the past trends in the NCR, that a surge in its early stages has already started in the region. This is a serious cause for concern,” it said.

OCTA reported that the reproduction number R0 (R-naught) of the new COVID-19 infections in Metro Manila increased to 1.15 in the Dec. 14-20 period from 1.06 in the previous week.