An expert said Monday that the active COVID-19 cases in the country could reach 40,000 by mid-January or late February.
“In terms of projections nakikita natin, posibleng tumaas talaga ‘yung kaso, lalo na kapag hindi tayo nagkaroon ng matinding intervention,” Prof. Jomar Rabajante of the University of the Philippines (UP) Pandemic Response Team said.
“At, doon sa aming pinalabas ng UP Pandemic Response Team na projections, possible tayong magkaroon ng peak, yung kung kailan magkakaroon ng increase tapos magpi-peak at magde-decrease, ang pinaka-early neto ay January 15, ‘yung half ng, middle ng January, ‘yung pinaka-late naman ay third week ng February.”
“So nandiyan ‘yung posibleng peak na mangyari. And ‘yung size nung peak natin, kung gaano kalaki, e yung reported cases natin e posibleng mag-range from 20,000-40,000 cases,” he said.
Rabajante warned that the peak might come earlier if health and safety protocols are not followed.
“Yung timelines na ‘yan ay depende sa magiging behavior natin ‘no, kasi kung talagang, kahit may Alert Level 3 tayo pero ‘yung implementations ay hindi masyadong maganda at still people will be very mobile, mas bibilis ‘yung transmission ng omicron so mapapaaga ngayon ‘yung peak natin.”
COVID-19 cases may reach 40K by mid-January – expert
“Yung delay naman ng peak ay if there will be a good indication na naging effective ‘yung mga alert levels natin and people will somehow maintain ‘yung minimum public health standards, pwedeng madelay ‘yung peak,” the expert explained.
“And ang kagandahan sa pag-delay ng peak, ay posibleng bumaba din ‘yung size ng peak. ‘Yung hindi tayo pwedeng umabot, posibleng hindi tayo doon umabot sa 40,000 na projections,” he added.
Last week, the OCTA Research projected there could be more than 2,000 new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila on New Year’s Eve.
However, on Sunday, the country recorded 4,600 new COVID-19 cases. As a result, the positivity rate rose to 19.6 percent, the highest level since September 20, 2021. World Health Organization’s recommended positivity rate is only 5 percent.
Medical experts have said that the sudden increase of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines is characteristic of a highly transmissible variant of concern such as Omicron.
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