The OCTA Research group said Monday that the number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines could reach 1 million before the end of April.
According to the group’s monitoring report, while the transmission rate has slowed down in Metro Manila due to the implementation of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), the number of cases still grew by 20% with 5,538 daily new cases over the past week.
“Before the end of April, the Philippines is expected to have recorded more than 1,000,000 total COVID-19 cases,” they said.
According to the DOH, 41,205 new recoveries were recorded yesterday, bringing the total number of those cured of respiratory disease to 646,100.
Despite this, the Philippines still recorded 11,028 additional confirmed COVID-19 cases this Sunday for a total of 795,051.
The reproduction number is “trending down towards 1.3 or less by April 11,” OCTA said.
Over the weekend, the national government decided to extend ECQ over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal until April 11.
“It is clear that the lockdown has been effective in slowing down the increase in number of new cases in the NCR. With an additional week of ECQ… the goal is to bring the reproduction number down to 1 or close to it,” the experts said.
COVID-19 cases in PH can reach 1M before end-April – OCTA Research
OCTA research group also noted that COVID-19 transmission has slowed down in Manila, Parañaque, Marikina, and Navotas, while Pasay and Makati recorded a downward trend in new cases.
However, “rapid increases” in new cases were still observed in Mandaluyong, Las Piñas, and San Juan.
“The goal is for these LGUs to have low or negative one-week growth rates in new COVID-19 cases very soon,” the experts said.
The group also said providing additional hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would help curb the hospital occupancy rate in some cities.
“We will still be seeing 11,000 to 12,000 plus [cases] per day for the next week or so,” OCTA Research fellow Professor Guido David told GMA News.
Meanwhile, the experts said Cebu has shown a downtrend in new cases and hospital occupancy. The province’s positivity rate has also decreased to an “acceptable level” at less than 10%.
“Cebu and its large cities (Cebu City, Mandaue, and Lapu-Lapu) have again shown that resilience and effective pandemic management are key against COVID-19,” OCTA said.