The number of new COVID-19 cases recorded per day in the country may drop to 5,000 to 6,000 by the end of October, the OCTA Research Group said this Sunday.
Professor Guido David of OCTA Research said the data on COVID-19 has been continuously improving in recent days as the number of new cases no longer reaches 10,000.
According to David, the reproduction number nationwide is only 0.64, and the 7-day average cases are 8,400.
He said the hospital utilization rate is also declining, based on data from the Department of Health. In Metro Manila, it is said to be only 47 percent.
Despite this, the intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate is still high.
David assumes that the more contagious Delta variant is the cause of many more ICU cases today.
Due to the improvement in the data, Metro Manila has been downgraded to Alert Level 3 from Level 4 starting this Saturday.
But a group of doctors expressed concern over the relaxation.
According to Dr. Maricar Limpin of the Philippine College of Physicians, Filipinos are “somewhat forgetful” in following health protocols whenever restrictions are relaxed.
COVID-19 cases likely to drop to 5K daily by end-October
Limpin also stressed that the hospitals are still full, and the government may not respond if the COVID-19 cases spike again.
Some lawmakers have criticized the OCTA’s study of COVID-19 cases in the country. According to the group, they are using data from the Department of Health.
Meanwhile, the national Social Weather Survey of September 12–16, 2021 found 91% of adult Filipinos worried (76% a great deal worried, 15% somewhat worried) and 9% a little/not worried (4% a little worried, 5% not worried) that anyone in their immediate family might catch Covid-19.
The latest percentage of those worried about catching Covid-19 is 4 points above the 87% (correctly rounded) in June 2021 and ties the record-high level reached in November 2020.
Compared to past SWS surveys, worry about catching Covid-19 is much greater than worries about catching previous viruses such as Ebola, Swine Flu, Bird Flu, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).