The University of the Philippines (UP) COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team projected the new COVID-19 cases might reach 40,000 per day by the end of the month or early October.
“Based on that projections, the numbers could still be increasing up to the end of September, early October, and we might reach 30,000-40,000 cases per day, reported through RT-PCR testing,” Professor Jomar Rabajante said on ANC’s “Rundown.”
“We still don’t include there the undetected cases and the detected by antigen test,” he said.
He said the increasing number of COVID-19 cases is due to the high positivity rate in the country.
“Positivity rate is still high. It’s nearly 30 percent which means that in three people being tested by RT-PCR, one might turn out positive.”
Rabajante added that hospital occupancy rates remain high.
“In terms of (intensive care unit) beds and bed wards, they are still increasing but, it’s slowing down. Compared to the previous speed like in the March 2021 increase it’s slowing down but of course, it’s just the rate. In terms of the actual number it’s still high, that’s why we hear news saying that hospitals are overwhelmed with severe and critical cases,” he explained.
COVID-19 cases may reach 40K per day in October
The expert believes granular lockdowns may be better the solution to fight the pandemic.
“I believe granular lockdown is better compared to the regional-wide or provincial wide lockdowns. This is because we’ve seen in the data that very wide lockdowns are not anymore effective compared to the 2020 and March 2021 ECQs,” he said.
“This is also because [by] having granular lockdowns, we can really target places [with] very high risk, very high number of clusters.”
However, he said that contact tracing and quarantine protocol implementation should be intensified.
“But in order for the granular lockdown to be successful, this means that we need to increase testing in that place, [and] contract tracing, definitely contact tracing. We need to increase our effort of COVID sheriffs, people implementing the rules. Sadly I’m working with soime LGUs, they don’t have people to do this.”
“I’m not sure with NCR, there might be, but for the provinces I’ve worked with, the LGUs, they’re saying they cannot do this up to the granular level,” he said.