80k COVID-19 cases in Philippines projected

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An expert from the University of the Philippines Institute of Mathematics projected Monday the number of COVID-19 cases could exceed 80,000 by the end of July.

“Tatama talaga ng 70,000 and higit pa. Ang lower estimate natin ngayon nasa 80,000 na eh, sa end of July. ‘Yung 70,000 talagang lalampasan na natin,” UP professor Dr. Guido David said in an interview on Dobol B sa News TV.

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(It would reach 70,000 or more. Our lower estimate is about 80,000 by the end of July. We will exceed 70,000.)

Just last week, David’s team projected that the end of July and 100,000 could record up to 70,000 cases by the end of August.

The professor said the National Capital Region had seen a “genuine surge” in transmissions in recent days, as shown by data that they triangulated using indicators such as positivity rate, hospitalization rate, and the number of cases.

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David added that further spike in COVID-19 inspections in nearby regions could be expected too.

Also read: DOH accepts UP projection of 100k COVID-19 cases in Philippines by end of August

“Asahan talaga nating lalong dadami ang cases and ang problem diyan is hindi lang sa NCR. Madadamay na ulit ang Calabarzon, and maybe even Central Luzon kasi hindi namomonitor masyado ang borders natin under GCQ (general community quarantine) and MGCQ (modified general community quarantine),” he said.

(We really expect more cases, and the problem there is not only in NCR. Calabarzon will be affected again, and maybe even Central Luzon because our borders under GCQ and MGCQ are not monitored much.)

The member of the UP research team releasing forecasts on COVID-19 numbers said transitioning to MGCQ is not recommended for Metro Manila.

The Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) said Sunday Metro Manila could ease to MGCQ soon if LGUs could quickly respond to the surge in COVID-19 cases in their areas.

Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles, who co-chairs the IATF, however, said the decision is still up to President Rodrigo Duterte on July 15.

David said they would not recommend MGCQ because the hospitals are almost full, and the government should not allow them to be overwhelmed.

He said Metro Manila could either remain under GCQ or go back to ECQ if the economy could still bear its impact.

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